The Consistency Player · 2026-10-17
Nora Hayes at Belmont at the Big A
Independent full-field rankings. The feature race rule is the largest field, with the earlier race breaking ties.
Feature raceRace 11 · Largest field
Best bet / strongest model signalRace 2 · #1 Delightful Flame
Best longshotRace 9 · #3 Sharp Swinger
Race 1 · 6 runners
Nora’s quick read
Commuted ranks first on this model’s 65.42 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Rating | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #6 | Commuted | 0.5-1 | 65.42 | Ability: 91.67 · Class: 75.00 · Connections: 58.33 · Form: 83.33 · Reliability: 25.00 |
| 2 | #2 | Run Classic | 6-1 | 57.08 | Ability: 75.00 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 25.00 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 41.67 |
| 3 | #1 | Cool Andy | 5-1 | 54.58 | Ability: 41.67 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 91.67 · Form: 83.33 · Reliability: 58.33 |
| 4 | #3 | Breslau | 6-1 | 42.92 | Ability: 58.33 · Class: 91.67 · Connections: 41.67 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 8.33 |
| 5 | #4 | Kunshan Bridge | 8-1 | 42.50 | Ability: 25.00 · Class: 25.00 · Connections: 75.00 · Form: 25.00 · Reliability: 75.00 |
| 6 | #5 | Conniving | 20-1 | 37.50 | Ability: 8.33 · Class: 8.33 · Connections: 8.33 · Form: 8.33 · Reliability: 91.67 |
Leading contenders: 6 · 2 · 1 · 3. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 2 · 6 runners
Nora’s quick read
Delightful Flame ranks first on this model’s 87.92 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Rating | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #1 | Delightful Flame | 1.2-1 | 87.92 | Ability: 91.67 · Class: 91.67 · Connections: 25.00 · Form: 66.67 · Reliability: 91.67 |
| 2 | #4 | Gift Of Gab | 1.8-1 | 58.33 | Ability: 75.00 · Class: 58.33 · Connections: 91.67 · Form: 91.67 · Reliability: 25.00 |
| 3 | #3 | River Seine | 3-1 | 47.08 | Ability: 58.33 · Class: 41.67 · Connections: 75.00 · Form: 33.33 · Reliability: 41.67 |
| 4 | #6 | So Sophia | 15-1 | 45.83 | Ability: 41.67 · Class: 75.00 · Connections: 8.33 · Form: 8.33 · Reliability: 58.33 |
| 5 | #2 | My First Dinah | 30-1 | 43.75 | Ability: 16.67 · Class: 8.33 · Connections: 58.33 · Form: 66.67 · Reliability: 75.00 |
| 6 | #5 | Lil' Regard | 8-1 | 17.08 | Ability: 16.67 · Class: 25.00 · Connections: 41.67 · Form: 33.33 · Reliability: 8.33 |
Leading contenders: 1 · 4 · 3 · 6. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 3 · 6 runners
Nora’s quick read
Le Gris ranks first on this model’s 77.08 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Rating | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #5 | Le Gris | 1.4-1 | 77.08 | Ability: 91.67 · Class: 91.67 · Connections: 91.67 · Form: 33.33 · Reliability: 75.00 |
| 2 | #4 | Sharp Spark | 5-1 | 63.75 | Ability: 58.33 · Class: 33.33 · Connections: 25.00 · Form: 33.33 · Reliability: 91.67 |
| 3 | #1 | Frizzante | 6-1 | 52.92 | Ability: 41.67 · Class: 58.33 · Connections: 8.33 · Form: 66.67 · Reliability: 58.33 |
| 4 | #3 | Missouri River | 3-1 | 50.00 | Ability: 75.00 · Class: 33.33 · Connections: 58.33 · Form: 91.67 · Reliability: 8.33 |
| 5 | #2 | Systemic Change | 4-1 | 33.33 | Ability: 25.00 · Class: 75.00 · Connections: 75.00 · Form: 8.33 · Reliability: 41.67 |
| 6 | #6 | Ambition | 8-1 | 22.92 | Ability: 8.33 · Class: 8.33 · Connections: 41.67 · Form: 66.67 · Reliability: 25.00 |
Leading contenders: 5 · 4 · 1 · 3. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 4 · 8 runners
Nora’s quick read
Notable Exchange ranks first on this model’s 75.00 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Rating | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #1 | Notable Exchange | 3.5-1 | 75.00 | Ability: 81.25 · Class: 68.75 · Connections: 81.25 · Form: 18.75 · Reliability: 93.75 |
| 2 | #4 | Bow Draw | 8-1 | 71.56 | Ability: 93.75 · Class: 56.25 · Connections: 68.75 · Form: 87.50 · Reliability: 43.75 |
| 3 | #6 | Seat At The Table | 2-1 | 67.81 | Ability: 68.75 · Class: 31.25 · Connections: 31.25 · Form: 87.50 · Reliability: 68.75 |
| 4 | #5 | Lady Firefoot | 4-1 | 61.25 | Ability: 56.25 · Class: 93.75 · Connections: 56.25 · Form: 6.25 · Reliability: 81.25 |
| 5 | #7 | Baby Sassicaia | 30-1 | 47.19 | Ability: 43.75 · Class: 43.75 · Connections: 6.25 · Form: 37.50 · Reliability: 56.25 |
| 6 | #2 | Save Us Melania | 8-1 | 37.50 | Ability: 25.00 · Class: 81.25 · Connections: 93.75 · Form: 56.25 · Reliability: 31.25 |
| 7 | #8 | Planet Clare | 5-1 | 24.38 | Ability: 25.00 · Class: 18.75 · Connections: 43.75 · Form: 68.75 · Reliability: 6.25 |
| 8 | #3 | Greyjoy | 8-1 | 15.31 | Ability: 6.25 · Class: 6.25 · Connections: 18.75 · Form: 37.50 · Reliability: 18.75 |
Leading contenders: 1 · 4 · 6 · 5. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 5 · 8 runners
Nora’s quick read
Shape Note ranks first on this model’s 80.62 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Rating | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #7 | Shape Note | 2-1 | 80.62 | Ability: 93.75 · Class: 93.75 · Connections: 68.75 · Form: 93.75 · Reliability: 56.25 |
| 2 | #5 | Mission Improbable | 4.5-1 | 75.00 | Ability: 81.25 · Class: 18.75 · Connections: 31.25 · Form: 81.25 · Reliability: 81.25 |
| 3 | #2 | Calvin'S Ride | 5-1 | 62.50 | Ability: 68.75 · Class: 6.25 · Connections: 56.25 · Form: 68.75 · Reliability: 68.75 |
| 4 | #8 | Global Prosperity | 8-1 | 57.19 | Ability: 43.75 · Class: 31.25 · Connections: 81.25 · Form: 25.00 · Reliability: 93.75 |
| 5 | #4 | Bite And Strike | 3-1 | 40.00 | Ability: 56.25 · Class: 68.75 · Connections: 93.75 · Form: 56.25 · Reliability: 6.25 |
| 6 | #1 | John Jay | 20-1 | 35.00 | Ability: 18.75 · Class: 56.25 · Connections: 6.25 · Form: 43.75 · Reliability: 43.75 |
| 7 | #6 | Vacation Dance | 10-1 | 30.94 | Ability: 31.25 · Class: 81.25 · Connections: 43.75 · Form: 25.00 · Reliability: 18.75 |
| 8 | #3 | Billionaires Row | 10-1 | 18.75 | Ability: 6.25 · Class: 43.75 · Connections: 18.75 · Form: 6.25 · Reliability: 31.25 |
Leading contenders: 7 · 5 · 2 · 8. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 6 · 8 runners
Nora’s quick read
Proud Foot ranks first on this model’s 79.38 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Rating | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #4 | Proud Foot | 6-1 | 79.38 | Ability: 93.75 · Class: 56.25 · Connections: 68.75 · Form: 81.25 · Reliability: 68.75 |
| 2 | #8 | Edistrudis | 10-1 | 70.94 | Ability: 56.25 · Class: 81.25 · Connections: 6.25 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 93.75 |
| 3 | #5 | Will Not Be Swayed | 2-1 | 60.31 | Ability: 68.75 · Class: 93.75 · Connections: 56.25 · Form: 25.00 · Reliability: 56.25 |
| 4 | #6 | Mascara | 6-1 | 55.31 | Ability: 43.75 · Class: 18.75 · Connections: 31.25 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 81.25 |
| 5 | #7 | City Blocks | 3-1 | 52.50 | Ability: 81.25 · Class: 37.50 · Connections: 93.75 · Form: 93.75 · Reliability: 6.25 |
| 6 | #3 | Looks First | 12-1 | 36.88 | Ability: 18.75 · Class: 37.50 · Connections: 81.25 · Form: 68.75 · Reliability: 43.75 |
| 7 | #1 | Meg'S Foxy Grey | 3.5-1 | 29.69 | Ability: 31.25 · Class: 68.75 · Connections: 43.75 · Form: 25.00 · Reliability: 18.75 |
| 8 | #2 | Probable Angle | 30-1 | 15.00 | Ability: 6.25 · Class: 6.25 · Connections: 18.75 · Form: 6.25 · Reliability: 31.25 |
Leading contenders: 4 · 8 · 5 · 6. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 7 · 7 runners
Nora’s quick read
Carc Brothers ranks first on this model’s 72.86 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Rating | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #1 | Carc Brothers | 1.2-1 | 72.86 | Ability: 64.29 · Class: 7.14 · Connections: 92.86 · Form: 92.86 · Reliability: 92.86 |
| 2 | #6 | Write Off Jerry | 8-1 | 69.29 | Ability: 78.57 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 35.71 · Form: 35.71 · Reliability: 78.57 |
| 3 | #7 | Interceptor | 2-1 | 60.71 | Ability: 92.86 · Class: 92.86 · Connections: 50.00 · Form: 78.57 · Reliability: 7.14 |
| 4 | #2 | Mutaawid | 4-1 | 50.71 | Ability: 42.86 · Class: 64.29 · Connections: 78.57 · Form: 64.29 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 5 | #4 | Emergence | 12-1 | 42.14 | Ability: 21.43 · Class: 78.57 · Connections: 64.29 · Form: 21.43 · Reliability: 64.29 |
| 6 | #3 | Sardis | 10-1 | 40.71 | Ability: 42.86 · Class: 35.71 · Connections: 21.43 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 35.71 |
| 7 | #5 | High Beta | 50-1 | 13.57 | Ability: 7.14 · Class: 21.43 · Connections: 7.14 · Form: 7.14 · Reliability: 21.43 |
Leading contenders: 1 · 6 · 7 · 2. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 8 · 9 runners
Nora’s quick read
Mursal ranks first on this model’s 88.61 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Rating | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #4 | Mursal | 3-1 | 88.61 | Ability: 94.44 · Class: 61.11 · Connections: 61.11 · Form: 77.78 · Reliability: 94.44 |
| 2 | #5 | Despo'S Dream | 3.5-1 | 83.89 | Ability: 83.33 · Class: 72.22 · Connections: 72.22 · Form: 94.44 · Reliability: 83.33 |
| 3 | #9 | Beira | 5-1 | 67.50 | Ability: 72.22 · Class: 16.67 · Connections: 50.00 · Form: 77.78 · Reliability: 72.22 |
| 4 | #3 | Snide | 4-1 | 51.11 | Ability: 61.11 · Class: 38.89 · Connections: 94.44 · Form: 61.11 · Reliability: 38.89 |
| 5 | #1 | Brunch With Amy | 6-1 | 45.00 | Ability: 50.00 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 38.89 · Form: 16.67 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 6 | #2 | Bourbon Serengeti | 15-1 | 41.11 | Ability: 27.78 · Class: 27.78 · Connections: 16.67 · Form: 38.89 · Reliability: 61.11 |
| 7 | #6 | Lika Rolling Stone | 10-1 | 31.67 | Ability: 38.89 · Class: 94.44 · Connections: 5.56 · Form: 5.56 · Reliability: 16.67 |
| 8 | #8 | Furry Fox | 20-1 | 24.44 | Ability: 16.67 · Class: 5.56 · Connections: 83.33 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 27.78 |
| 9 | #7 | Bam'S Bliss Kiss | 10-1 | 16.67 | Ability: 5.56 · Class: 83.33 · Connections: 27.78 · Form: 27.78 · Reliability: 5.56 |
Leading contenders: 4 · 5 · 9 · 3. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 9 · 8 runners
Nora’s quick read
Sharp Swinger ranks first on this model’s 78.44 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Rating | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #3 | Sharp Swinger | 10-1 | 78.44 | Ability: 81.25 · Class: 93.75 · Connections: 68.75 · Form: 25.00 · Reliability: 93.75 |
| 2 | #1 | Georgia Magic | 1.2-1 | 76.88 | Ability: 93.75 · Class: 56.25 · Connections: 93.75 · Form: 93.75 · Reliability: 56.25 |
| 3 | #8 | Kinetic | 6-1 | 59.38 | Ability: 68.75 · Class: 81.25 · Connections: 31.25 · Form: 56.25 · Reliability: 43.75 |
| 4 | #7 | Inexorable | 8-1 | 59.06 | Ability: 56.25 · Class: 43.75 · Connections: 43.75 · Form: 25.00 · Reliability: 81.25 |
| 5 | #4 | Magnanimous Max | 3-1 | 37.50 | Ability: 31.25 · Class: 18.75 · Connections: 81.25 · Form: 81.25 · Reliability: 31.25 |
| 6 | #6 | Fateful Lightning | 12-1 | 37.50 | Ability: 6.25 · Class: 6.25 · Connections: 56.25 · Form: 68.75 · Reliability: 68.75 |
| 7 | #2 | Barb | 10-1 | 31.88 | Ability: 43.75 · Class: 68.75 · Connections: 18.75 · Form: 6.25 · Reliability: 18.75 |
| 8 | #5 | Gulfy | 15-1 | 19.38 | Ability: 18.75 · Class: 31.25 · Connections: 6.25 · Form: 43.75 · Reliability: 6.25 |
Leading contenders: 3 · 1 · 8 · 7. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 10 · 9 runners
Nora’s quick read
Paros ranks first on this model’s 83.06 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Rating | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #3 | Paros | 4-1 | 83.06 | Ability: 94.44 · Class: 61.11 · Connections: 50.00 · Form: 66.67 · Reliability: 83.33 |
| 2 | #7 | Unit Economics | 5-1 | 74.72 | Ability: 61.11 · Class: 72.22 · Connections: 72.22 · Form: 66.67 · Reliability: 94.44 |
| 3 | #9 | Emirates Road | 10-1 | 60.00 | Ability: 83.33 · Class: 83.33 · Connections: 38.89 · Form: 83.33 · Reliability: 16.67 |
| 4 | #4 | Hammerhead | 6-1 | 58.89 | Ability: 72.22 · Class: 38.89 · Connections: 61.11 · Form: 5.56 · Reliability: 72.22 |
| 5 | #8 | Ciao Chuck | 12-1 | 45.00 | Ability: 50.00 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 16.67 · Form: 16.67 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 6 | #5 | Urgency | 6-1 | 40.00 | Ability: 38.89 · Class: 5.56 · Connections: 83.33 · Form: 94.44 · Reliability: 27.78 |
| 7 | #2 | What Say Thee | 8-1 | 38.33 | Ability: 27.78 · Class: 94.44 · Connections: 27.78 · Form: 27.78 · Reliability: 38.89 |
| 8 | #6 | Blown Cover | 15-1 | 32.22 | Ability: 5.56 · Class: 27.78 · Connections: 5.56 · Form: 38.89 · Reliability: 61.11 |
| 9 | #1 | Highlands Way | 2.5-1 | 17.78 | Ability: 16.67 · Class: 16.67 · Connections: 94.44 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 5.56 |
Leading contenders: 3 · 7 · 9 · 4. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 11 · 10 runners
Nora’s quick read
Shoot The Nickel ranks first on this model’s 90.00 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Rating | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #10 | Shoot The Nickel | 4-1 | 90.00 | Ability: 95.00 · Class: 95.00 · Connections: 95.00 · Form: 85.00 · Reliability: 85.00 |
| 2 | #7 | Life And Light | 20-1 | 64.50 | Ability: 55.00 · Class: 25.00 · Connections: 25.00 · Form: 45.00 · Reliability: 95.00 |
| 3 | #8 | Two'S A Crowd | 10-1 | 62.00 | Ability: 75.00 · Class: 15.00 · Connections: 5.00 · Form: 75.00 · Reliability: 55.00 |
| 4 | #4 | Secured Landing | 2-1 | 56.25 | Ability: 85.00 · Class: 80.00 · Connections: 85.00 · Form: 60.00 · Reliability: 15.00 |
| 5 | #6 | Tapwrits Temper | 10-1 | 51.50 | Ability: 35.00 · Class: 5.00 · Connections: 75.00 · Form: 95.00 · Reliability: 65.00 |
| 6 | #5 | Princip | 8-1 | 47.25 | Ability: 45.00 · Class: 80.00 · Connections: 35.00 · Form: 60.00 · Reliability: 35.00 |
| 7 | #2 | Normandy Coast | 5-1 | 44.25 | Ability: 65.00 · Class: 65.00 · Connections: 55.00 · Form: 20.00 · Reliability: 25.00 |
| 8 | #1 | Sara'S Shaman | 20-1 | 43.00 | Ability: 20.00 · Class: 35.00 · Connections: 65.00 · Form: 35.00 · Reliability: 75.00 |
| 9 | #3 | Concorde Spirit | 8-1 | 31.25 | Ability: 20.00 · Class: 45.00 · Connections: 45.00 · Form: 20.00 · Reliability: 45.00 |
| 10 | #9 | Pineapple Man | 12-1 | 10.00 | Ability: 5.00 · Class: 55.00 · Connections: 15.00 · Form: 5.00 · Reliability: 5.00 |
Leading contenders: 10 · 7 · 8 · 4. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Morning-line odds are estimates, not current prices. Rankings and model scores are experimental projections, not guarantees. Verify scratches, surface changes, official betting interests and post times.