LOOK BEYOND THE OBVIOUS.
The Value Scout · 2026-10-17

Daniel Reed at Keeneland

Independent full-field rankings. The feature race rule is the largest field, with the earlier race breaking ties.

Feature raceRace 2 · Largest field
Best bet / strongest model signalRace 10 · #2 Cactus Cairo
Best longshotRace 5 · #5 Classic Time
Race 1 · 11 runners

Daniel’s quick read

Trouble Time leads the value ranking at the morning line; compare the available price before considering a wager.

Jump to exotic contenders ↓
RankProgramHorseMorning lineModel win chanceComponent ratings
1#8Trouble Time2.5-146.21%Ability: 95.45 · Class: 95.45 · Connections: 50.00 · Form: 40.91 · Reliability: 95.00
2#7L Rankin6-119.63%Ability: 86.36 · Class: 40.91 · Connections: 40.91 · Form: 86.36 · Reliability: 85.00
3#11Keepinitreal10-15.85%Ability: 68.18 · Class: 31.82 · Connections: 68.18 · Form: 63.64 · Reliability: 65.00
4#9Heartily4.5-111.58%Ability: 31.82 · Class: 86.36 · Connections: 86.36 · Form: 31.82 · Reliability: 15.00
5#5Hodl Hard5-15.35%Ability: 13.64 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 77.27 · Form: 22.73 · Reliability: 5.00
6#2Out Flat30-12.77%Ability: 40.91 · Class: 22.73 · Connections: 31.82 · Form: 77.27 · Reliability: 45.00
7#4Our Standard10-14.04%Ability: 59.09 · Class: 4.55 · Connections: 22.73 · Form: 95.45 · Reliability: 50.00
8#1Dispersion12-12.28%Ability: 54.55 · Class: 68.18 · Connections: 4.55 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 35.00
9#6Strummin8-12.13%Ability: 54.55 · Class: 77.27 · Connections: 95.45 · Form: 13.64 · Reliability: 55.00
10#3Essential Wild Cat20-10.13%Ability: 22.73 · Class: 13.64 · Connections: 59.09 · Form: 63.64 · Reliability: 75.00
11#10Knick The Quick15-10.04%Ability: 4.55 · Class: 59.09 · Connections: 13.64 · Form: 4.55 · Reliability: 25.00

Leading contenders: 8 · 7 · 11 · 9. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.

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Race 2 · 16 runners

Daniel’s quick read

Epiphany leads the value ranking at the morning line; compare the available price before considering a wager.

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RankProgramHorseMorning lineModel win chanceComponent ratings
1#11Epiphany30-112.53%Ability: 66.25 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 46.88 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
2#7Queens Ambition6-127.63%Ability: 68.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 78.12 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
3#10Valentine Eve12-113.04%Ability: 65.62 · Class: 70.83 · Connections: 9.38 · Form: 79.17 · Reliability: 25.00
4#6Bellacielo8-116.26%Ability: 63.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 71.88 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
5#13Mussume20-15.01%Ability: 58.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 53.12 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
6#3Absolute Lea W5-114.65%Ability: 52.08 · Class: 79.17 · Connections: 40.62 · Form: 16.67 · Reliability: 50.00
7#4Ardennes10-15.62%Ability: 59.38 · Class: 33.33 · Connections: 90.62 · Form: 87.50 · Reliability: 50.00
8#5Puzzled15-11.81%Ability: 18.75 · Class: 54.17 · Connections: 34.38 · Form: 16.67 · Reliability: 50.00
9#9Avos Rose20-10.54%Ability: 21.88 · Class: 4.17 · Connections: 21.88 · Form: 95.83 · Reliability: 75.00
10#14J Z'S Not Again12-10.87%Ability: 46.88 · Class: 20.83 · Connections: 3.12 · Form: 58.33 · Reliability: 91.67
11#16Capability8-10.46%Ability: 34.38 · Class: 45.83 · Connections: 84.38 · Form: 45.83 · Reliability: 58.33
12#2Southern Way4.5-10.66%Ability: 28.12 · Class: 62.50 · Connections: 65.62 · Form: 70.83 · Reliability: 41.67
13#12Sailor'S Dream3.5-10.73%Ability: 53.12 · Class: 95.83 · Connections: 96.88 · Form: 37.50 · Reliability: 50.00
14#1Ginger Money12-10.16%Ability: 46.88 · Class: 33.33 · Connections: 28.12 · Form: 29.17 · Reliability: 50.00
15#15Saffron Rouge30-10.03%Ability: 15.62 · Class: 12.50 · Connections: 59.38 · Form: 58.33 · Reliability: 8.33
16#8Dream Wave12-10.00%Ability: 36.46 · Class: 87.50 · Connections: 15.62 · Form: 4.17 · Reliability: 50.00

Leading contenders: 11 · 7 · 10 · 6. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.

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Race 3 · 9 runners

Daniel’s quick read

Nation leads the value ranking at the morning line; compare the available price before considering a wager.

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RankProgramHorseMorning lineModel win chanceComponent ratings
1#5Nation10-126.89%Ability: 5.56 · Class: 83.33 · Connections: 27.78 · Form: 27.78 · Reliability: 5.56
2#6Lord Majesty6-113.34%Ability: 83.33 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 50.00 · Form: 94.44 · Reliability: 94.44
3#2Dr. Storm15-15.36%Ability: 55.56 · Class: 72.22 · Connections: 61.11 · Form: 16.67 · Reliability: 61.11
4#7Dancin For Gold2.5-120.46%Ability: 94.44 · Class: 94.44 · Connections: 38.89 · Form: 66.67 · Reliability: 72.22
5#3King Apollo8-17.19%Ability: 72.22 · Class: 38.89 · Connections: 16.67 · Form: 5.56 · Reliability: 50.00
6#8Swirvin3-115.14%Ability: 55.56 · Class: 61.11 · Connections: 94.44 · Form: 66.67 · Reliability: 16.67
7#9Halfway Joking4-17.25%Ability: 38.89 · Class: 5.56 · Connections: 72.22 · Form: 83.33 · Reliability: 27.78
8#1El Dandi20-13.25%Ability: 16.67 · Class: 16.67 · Connections: 83.33 · Form: 38.89 · Reliability: 38.89
9#4Doctor Jeff12-11.12%Ability: 27.78 · Class: 27.78 · Connections: 5.56 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 83.33

Leading contenders: 5 · 6 · 2 · 7. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.

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Race 4 · 16 runners

Daniel’s quick read

Speak For Yourself leads the value ranking at the morning line; compare the available price before considering a wager.

Jump to exotic contenders ↓
RankProgramHorseMorning lineModel win chanceComponent ratings
1#16Speak For Yourself20-17.39%Ability: 50.00 · Class: 96.15 · Connections: 40.62 · Form: 73.08 · Reliability: 50.00
2#1Toco Dancer5-115.90%Ability: 63.54 · Class: 69.23 · Connections: 46.88 · Form: 73.08 · Reliability: 50.00
3#14Majorbrowniepoints3-123.45%Ability: 60.42 · Class: 69.23 · Connections: 56.25 · Form: 26.92 · Reliability: 50.00
4#9Sucker For Looks4-116.19%Ability: 63.54 · Class: 69.23 · Connections: 71.88 · Form: 96.15 · Reliability: 50.00
5#3Candy Pancakes3.5-115.93%Ability: 63.54 · Class: 11.54 · Connections: 96.88 · Form: 88.46 · Reliability: 50.00
6#5Delightful Diva6-15.43%Ability: 68.75 · Class: 26.92 · Connections: 56.25 · Form: 57.69 · Reliability: 50.00
7#2Speedbird15-14.09%Ability: 57.29 · Class: 42.31 · Connections: 28.12 · Form: 42.31 · Reliability: 50.00
8#13Emma'S Justice15-12.32%Ability: 43.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 65.62 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
9#7Play Along20-11.75%Ability: 50.00 · Class: 69.23 · Connections: 15.62 · Form: 42.31 · Reliability: 50.00
10#15Breezy10-12.66%Ability: 53.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 84.38 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
11#6Gray Eminence10-11.88%Ability: 41.25 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 90.62 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
12#10Ultraviolet6-12.89%Ability: 43.75 · Class: 34.62 · Connections: 78.12 · Form: 42.31 · Reliability: 50.00
13#11Woodmere15-10.05%Ability: 31.25 · Class: 11.54 · Connections: 3.12 · Form: 19.23 · Reliability: 50.00
14#8Nuccia15-10.04%Ability: 38.54 · Class: 11.54 · Connections: 34.38 · Form: 73.08 · Reliability: 50.00
15#4American Destiny20-10.01%Ability: 36.46 · Class: 69.23 · Connections: 9.38 · Form: 7.69 · Reliability: 50.00
16#12Rosabella Gold30-10.00%Ability: 34.38 · Class: 69.23 · Connections: 21.88 · Form: 7.69 · Reliability: 50.00

Leading contenders: 16 · 1 · 14 · 9. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.

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Race 5 · 10 runners

Daniel’s quick read

Classic Time leads the value ranking at the morning line; compare the available price before considering a wager.

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RankProgramHorseMorning lineModel win chanceComponent ratings
1#5Classic Time15-127.01%Ability: 95.00 · Class: 55.00 · Connections: 85.00 · Form: 85.00 · Reliability: 35.00
2#7Market Street20-17.90%Ability: 75.00 · Class: 80.00 · Connections: 35.00 · Form: 15.00 · Reliability: 75.00
3#6Raymond12-112.57%Ability: 85.00 · Class: 5.00 · Connections: 25.00 · Form: 75.00 · Reliability: 95.00
4#10Ship Ship Hooray8-113.61%Ability: 45.00 · Class: 15.00 · Connections: 5.00 · Form: 95.00 · Reliability: 25.00
5#1Camp Hale8-16.82%Ability: 55.00 · Class: 35.00 · Connections: 15.00 · Form: 65.00 · Reliability: 85.00
6#2Jefferson Street4.5-110.99%Ability: 65.00 · Class: 95.00 · Connections: 65.00 · Form: 30.00 · Reliability: 45.00
7#3Creole Chrome3-112.92%Ability: 35.00 · Class: 80.00 · Connections: 55.00 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 15.00
8#4Track Phantom6-12.85%Ability: 5.00 · Class: 65.00 · Connections: 75.00 · Form: 5.00 · Reliability: 5.00
9#8Rockies Balboa10-11.79%Ability: 15.00 · Class: 25.00 · Connections: 95.00 · Form: 30.00 · Reliability: 65.00
10#9Great White4-13.55%Ability: 25.00 · Class: 45.00 · Connections: 45.00 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 55.00

Leading contenders: 5 · 7 · 6 · 10. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.

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Race 6 · 16 runners

Daniel’s quick read

Decimation leads the value ranking at the morning line; compare the available price before considering a wager.

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RankProgramHorseMorning lineModel win chanceComponent ratings
1#3Decimation4-151.77%Ability: 96.88 · Class: 75.00 · Connections: 9.38 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
2#10Accelerator12-19.04%Ability: 66.25 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 15.62 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
3#13Midnight Max30-14.31%Ability: 63.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 34.38 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
4#9Prateen15-14.83%Ability: 58.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 65.62 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
5#1Brazen Caine12-14.33%Ability: 48.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 46.88 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
6#4Goshawk12-13.54%Ability: 46.25 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 21.88 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
7#2Midnight Rumble15-12.72%Ability: 43.75 · Class: 25.00 · Connections: 53.12 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
8#12Fair Chase10-13.57%Ability: 61.25 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 71.88 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
9#5Start The Party8-13.19%Ability: 53.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 90.62 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
10#16Twillo6-14.06%Ability: 51.25 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 40.62 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
11#8Big City Steve30-10.60%Ability: 31.25 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 3.12 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
12#11Capitola3.5-13.35%Ability: 56.25 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 96.88 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
13#14Just Plain Eugene10-11.25%Ability: 38.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 28.12 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
14#7Outlaw Joe5-11.87%Ability: 41.25 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 59.38 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
15#6Dr. Bob8-10.90%Ability: 36.25 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 78.12 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
16#15Epic Journey5-10.69%Ability: 33.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 84.38 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00

Leading contenders: 3 · 10 · 13 · 9. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.

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Race 7 · 12 runners

Daniel’s quick read

Roscoe'S Brother leads the value ranking at the morning line; compare the available price before considering a wager.

Jump to exotic contenders ↓
RankProgramHorseMorning lineModel win chanceComponent ratings
1#4Roscoe'S Brother15-121.08%Ability: 80.56 · Class: 70.83 · Connections: 79.17 · Form: 95.83 · Reliability: 50.00
2#11Obliteration4.5-118.28%Ability: 79.17 · Class: 79.17 · Connections: 54.17 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 86.36
3#1Solitude Dude6-112.32%Ability: 58.33 · Class: 87.50 · Connections: 87.50 · Form: 37.50 · Reliability: 13.64
4#12Deep Flame1.4-130.47%Ability: 87.50 · Class: 41.67 · Connections: 95.83 · Form: 87.50 · Reliability: 22.73
5#3Chief Wallabee8-16.64%Ability: 70.83 · Class: 95.83 · Connections: 20.83 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
6#7Mo Koko30-12.07%Ability: 29.17 · Class: 41.67 · Connections: 12.50 · Form: 20.83 · Reliability: 68.18
7#5American Man20-12.32%Ability: 58.33 · Class: 54.17 · Connections: 45.83 · Form: 75.00 · Reliability: 95.45
8#2Trouble Calling20-11.65%Ability: 45.83 · Class: 29.17 · Connections: 62.50 · Form: 75.00 · Reliability: 77.27
9#6Dr. Kapur12-12.53%Ability: 20.83 · Class: 62.50 · Connections: 70.83 · Form: 29.17 · Reliability: 31.82
10#10Doublecents10-12.39%Ability: 37.50 · Class: 4.17 · Connections: 37.50 · Form: 62.50 · Reliability: 40.91
11#8I C Light30-10.21%Ability: 12.50 · Class: 12.50 · Connections: 29.17 · Form: 12.50 · Reliability: 59.09
12#9Street Beast20-10.05%Ability: 4.17 · Class: 20.83 · Connections: 4.17 · Form: 4.17 · Reliability: 4.55

Leading contenders: 4 · 11 · 1 · 12. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.

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Race 8 · 10 runners

Daniel’s quick read

Dare To Fly leads the value ranking at the morning line; compare the available price before considering a wager.

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RankProgramHorseMorning lineModel win chanceComponent ratings
1#6Dare To Fly30-110.50%Ability: 85.00 · Class: 85.00 · Connections: 5.00 · Form: 25.00 · Reliability: 95.00
2#5Amber Cascade8-119.38%Ability: 45.00 · Class: 95.00 · Connections: 85.00 · Form: 5.00 · Reliability: 5.00
3#2Ontario6-122.56%Ability: 75.00 · Class: 65.00 · Connections: 75.00 · Form: 40.00 · Reliability: 15.00
4#10Bojaca Blessing3.5-118.90%Ability: 95.00 · Class: 35.00 · Connections: 55.00 · Form: 75.00 · Reliability: 25.00
5#1Caviar Breakfast8-17.00%Ability: 65.00 · Class: 25.00 · Connections: 65.00 · Form: 40.00 · Reliability: 55.00
6#8She'S Lookin Lucky3-16.09%Ability: 35.00 · Class: 75.00 · Connections: 35.00 · Form: 60.00 · Reliability: 35.00
7#9Buttons And Lace20-13.81%Ability: 25.00 · Class: 5.00 · Connections: 25.00 · Form: 95.00 · Reliability: 85.00
8#7Poppy The Princess30-12.41%Ability: 5.00 · Class: 55.00 · Connections: 45.00 · Form: 15.00 · Reliability: 65.00
9#4For Love And Honor10-14.70%Ability: 15.00 · Class: 45.00 · Connections: 15.00 · Form: 60.00 · Reliability: 45.00
10#3Hear The Queen3.5-14.66%Ability: 55.00 · Class: 15.00 · Connections: 95.00 · Form: 85.00 · Reliability: 75.00

Leading contenders: 6 · 5 · 2 · 10. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.

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Race 9 · 12 runners

Daniel’s quick read

With A Kiss leads the value ranking at the morning line; compare the available price before considering a wager.

Jump to exotic contenders ↓
RankProgramHorseMorning lineModel win chanceComponent ratings
1#10With A Kiss20-17.77%Ability: 41.67 · Class: 12.50 · Connections: 54.17 · Form: 95.83 · Reliability: 50.00
2#7A Fine Chardonnay12-111.93%Ability: 79.17 · Class: 87.50 · Connections: 12.50 · Form: 37.50 · Reliability: 59.09
3#2Mythical12-18.06%Ability: 62.50 · Class: 79.17 · Connections: 79.17 · Form: 29.17 · Reliability: 50.00
4#9Mashallah1.6-132.85%Ability: 95.83 · Class: 41.67 · Connections: 70.83 · Form: 79.17 · Reliability: 40.91
5#8Conceit4-113.55%Ability: 70.83 · Class: 62.50 · Connections: 95.83 · Form: 87.50 · Reliability: 13.64
6#11Movie Night4.5-112.23%Ability: 87.50 · Class: 70.83 · Connections: 87.50 · Form: 45.83 · Reliability: 22.73
7#1Army'S Marauder30-12.72%Ability: 12.50 · Class: 4.17 · Connections: 29.17 · Form: 54.17 · Reliability: 31.82
8#12Star Actress30-12.32%Ability: 29.17 · Class: 29.17 · Connections: 37.50 · Form: 20.83 · Reliability: 77.27
9#3Hen Party20-12.43%Ability: 50.00 · Class: 54.17 · Connections: 62.50 · Form: 62.50 · Reliability: 95.45
10#5Yo Fancy30-11.11%Ability: 20.83 · Class: 20.83 · Connections: 4.17 · Form: 70.83 · Reliability: 86.36
11#6Percy'S Bar6-14.79%Ability: 50.00 · Class: 95.83 · Connections: 45.83 · Form: 4.17 · Reliability: 68.18
12#4Coco Connect50-10.24%Ability: 4.17 · Class: 41.67 · Connections: 20.83 · Form: 12.50 · Reliability: 4.55

Leading contenders: 10 · 7 · 2 · 9. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.

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Race 10 · 16 runners

Daniel’s quick read

Cactus Cairo leads the value ranking at the morning line; compare the available price before considering a wager.

Jump to exotic contenders ↓
RankProgramHorseMorning lineModel win chanceComponent ratings
1#2Cactus Cairo30-114.42%Ability: 78.12 · Class: 34.38 · Connections: 15.62 · Form: 71.88 · Reliability: 32.14
2#7Zoe'S Prime30-16.28%Ability: 28.12 · Class: 28.12 · Connections: 40.62 · Form: 56.25 · Reliability: 10.71
3#4Petronella10-19.79%Ability: 46.88 · Class: 53.12 · Connections: 59.38 · Form: 12.50 · Reliability: 17.86
4#1Mechaya6-113.75%Ability: 96.88 · Class: 68.75 · Connections: 21.88 · Form: 43.75 · Reliability: 82.14
5#16Lady Revenge12-17.15%Ability: 59.38 · Class: 59.38 · Connections: 90.62 · Form: 21.88 · Reliability: 39.29
6#11Shirley Ann6-111.62%Ability: 87.50 · Class: 40.62 · Connections: 53.12 · Form: 87.50 · Reliability: 75.00
7#5Epic Lady Luck3.5-19.21%Ability: 87.50 · Class: 84.38 · Connections: 84.38 · Form: 87.50 · Reliability: 96.43
8#3Twirling Claire4-17.07%Ability: 71.88 · Class: 78.12 · Connections: 65.62 · Form: 56.25 · Reliability: 67.86
9#10Windy Houston30-13.48%Ability: 15.62 · Class: 15.62 · Connections: 3.12 · Form: 28.12 · Reliability: 3.57
10#12Vekoma'S Diva12-14.95%Ability: 40.62 · Class: 90.62 · Connections: 34.38 · Form: 96.88 · Reliability: 46.43
11#15Balright15-13.14%Ability: 60.42 · Class: 46.88 · Connections: 46.88 · Form: 71.88 · Reliability: 50.00
12#14She Wants War10-14.06%Ability: 53.12 · Class: 68.75 · Connections: 96.88 · Form: 43.75 · Reliability: 89.29
13#13Solemn Vow30-11.03%Ability: 21.88 · Class: 96.88 · Connections: 9.38 · Form: 3.12 · Reliability: 25.00
14#6Ms. Jay Dee Em5-13.06%Ability: 22.92 · Class: 3.12 · Connections: 78.12 · Form: 34.38 · Reliability: 50.00
15#9Paris Twilight10-10.94%Ability: 34.38 · Class: 9.38 · Connections: 71.88 · Form: 71.88 · Reliability: 60.71
16#8Elite20-10.03%Ability: 3.12 · Class: 21.88 · Connections: 28.12 · Form: 12.50 · Reliability: 53.57

Leading contenders: 2 · 7 · 4 · 1. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.

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Morning-line odds are estimates, not current prices. Rankings and model scores are experimental projections, not guarantees. Verify scratches, surface changes, official betting interests and post times.