LOOK BEYOND THE OBVIOUS.
The Consistency Player · 2026-10-17

Nora Hayes at Keeneland

Independent full-field rankings. The feature race rule is the largest field, with the earlier race breaking ties.

Feature raceRace 2 · Largest field
Best bet / strongest model signalRace 8 · #6 Dare To Fly
Best longshotRace 2 · #14 J Z'S Not Again
Race 1 · 11 runners

Nora’s quick read

Trouble Time ranks first on this model’s 87.11 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.

Jump to exotic contenders ↓
RankProgramHorseMorning lineRatingComponent ratings
1#8Trouble Time2.5-187.11Ability: 95.45 · Class: 95.45 · Connections: 50.00 · Form: 40.91 · Reliability: 95.00
2#7L Rankin6-181.34Ability: 86.36 · Class: 40.91 · Connections: 40.91 · Form: 86.36 · Reliability: 85.00
3#11Keepinitreal10-162.75Ability: 68.18 · Class: 31.82 · Connections: 68.18 · Form: 63.64 · Reliability: 65.00
4#4Our Standard10-155.91Ability: 59.09 · Class: 4.55 · Connections: 22.73 · Form: 95.45 · Reliability: 50.00
5#6Strummin8-150.84Ability: 54.55 · Class: 77.27 · Connections: 95.45 · Form: 13.64 · Reliability: 55.00
6#1Dispersion12-148.39Ability: 54.55 · Class: 68.18 · Connections: 4.55 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 35.00
7#3Essential Wild Cat20-146.25Ability: 22.73 · Class: 13.64 · Connections: 59.09 · Form: 63.64 · Reliability: 75.00
8#2Out Flat30-145.98Ability: 40.91 · Class: 22.73 · Connections: 31.82 · Form: 77.27 · Reliability: 45.00
9#9Heartily4.5-131.39Ability: 31.82 · Class: 86.36 · Connections: 86.36 · Form: 31.82 · Reliability: 15.00
10#10Knick The Quick15-117.16Ability: 4.55 · Class: 59.09 · Connections: 13.64 · Form: 4.55 · Reliability: 25.00
11#5Hodl Hard5-115.61Ability: 13.64 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 77.27 · Form: 22.73 · Reliability: 5.00

Leading contenders: 8 · 7 · 11 · 4. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.

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Race 2 · 16 runners

Nora’s quick read

J Z'S Not Again ranks first on this model’s 61.67 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.

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RankProgramHorseMorning lineRatingComponent ratings
1#14J Z'S Not Again12-161.67Ability: 46.88 · Class: 20.83 · Connections: 3.12 · Form: 58.33 · Reliability: 91.67
2#4Ardennes10-157.71Ability: 59.38 · Class: 33.33 · Connections: 90.62 · Form: 87.50 · Reliability: 50.00
3#7Queens Ambition6-157.50Ability: 68.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 78.12 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
4#11Epiphany30-156.50Ability: 66.25 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 46.88 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
5#6Bellacielo8-155.50Ability: 63.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 71.88 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
6#10Valentine Eve12-153.96Ability: 65.62 · Class: 70.83 · Connections: 9.38 · Form: 79.17 · Reliability: 25.00
7#12Sailor'S Dream3.5-153.96Ability: 53.12 · Class: 95.83 · Connections: 96.88 · Form: 37.50 · Reliability: 50.00
8#13Mussume20-153.50Ability: 58.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 53.12 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
9#9Avos Rose20-149.79Ability: 21.88 · Class: 4.17 · Connections: 21.88 · Form: 95.83 · Reliability: 75.00
10#3Absolute Lea W5-148.75Ability: 52.08 · Class: 79.17 · Connections: 40.62 · Form: 16.67 · Reliability: 50.00
11#16Capability8-145.62Ability: 34.38 · Class: 45.83 · Connections: 84.38 · Form: 45.83 · Reliability: 58.33
12#1Ginger Money12-143.96Ability: 46.88 · Class: 33.33 · Connections: 28.12 · Form: 29.17 · Reliability: 50.00
13#2Southern Way4.5-142.71Ability: 28.12 · Class: 62.50 · Connections: 65.62 · Form: 70.83 · Reliability: 41.67
14#8Dream Wave12-141.46Ability: 36.46 · Class: 87.50 · Connections: 15.62 · Form: 4.17 · Reliability: 50.00
15#5Puzzled15-132.92Ability: 18.75 · Class: 54.17 · Connections: 34.38 · Form: 16.67 · Reliability: 50.00
16#15Saffron Rouge30-119.17Ability: 15.62 · Class: 12.50 · Connections: 59.38 · Form: 58.33 · Reliability: 8.33

Leading contenders: 14 · 4 · 7 · 11. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.

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Race 3 · 9 runners

Nora’s quick read

Lord Majesty ranks first on this model’s 85.56 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.

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RankProgramHorseMorning lineRatingComponent ratings
1#6Lord Majesty6-185.56Ability: 83.33 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 50.00 · Form: 94.44 · Reliability: 94.44
2#7Dancin For Gold2.5-182.50Ability: 94.44 · Class: 94.44 · Connections: 38.89 · Form: 66.67 · Reliability: 72.22
3#2Dr. Storm15-153.33Ability: 55.56 · Class: 72.22 · Connections: 61.11 · Form: 16.67 · Reliability: 61.11
4#3King Apollo8-151.11Ability: 72.22 · Class: 38.89 · Connections: 16.67 · Form: 5.56 · Reliability: 50.00
5#4Doctor Jeff12-150.56Ability: 27.78 · Class: 27.78 · Connections: 5.56 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 83.33
6#8Swirvin3-144.17Ability: 55.56 · Class: 61.11 · Connections: 94.44 · Form: 66.67 · Reliability: 16.67
7#9Halfway Joking4-138.33Ability: 38.89 · Class: 5.56 · Connections: 72.22 · Form: 83.33 · Reliability: 27.78
8#1El Dandi20-127.78Ability: 16.67 · Class: 16.67 · Connections: 83.33 · Form: 38.89 · Reliability: 38.89
9#5Nation10-116.67Ability: 5.56 · Class: 83.33 · Connections: 27.78 · Form: 27.78 · Reliability: 5.56

Leading contenders: 6 · 7 · 2 · 3. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.

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Race 4 · 16 runners

Nora’s quick read

Sucker For Looks ranks first on this model’s 64.26 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.

Jump to exotic contenders ↓
RankProgramHorseMorning lineRatingComponent ratings
1#9Sucker For Looks4-164.26Ability: 63.54 · Class: 69.23 · Connections: 71.88 · Form: 96.15 · Reliability: 50.00
2#1Toco Dancer5-160.80Ability: 63.54 · Class: 69.23 · Connections: 46.88 · Form: 73.08 · Reliability: 50.00
3#16Speak For Yourself20-158.08Ability: 50.00 · Class: 96.15 · Connections: 40.62 · Form: 73.08 · Reliability: 50.00
4#3Candy Pancakes3.5-157.34Ability: 63.54 · Class: 11.54 · Connections: 96.88 · Form: 88.46 · Reliability: 50.00
5#5Delightful Diva6-156.35Ability: 68.75 · Class: 26.92 · Connections: 56.25 · Form: 57.69 · Reliability: 50.00
6#14Majorbrowniepoints3-152.63Ability: 60.42 · Class: 69.23 · Connections: 56.25 · Form: 26.92 · Reliability: 50.00
7#15Breezy10-151.50Ability: 53.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 84.38 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
8#2Speedbird15-150.99Ability: 57.29 · Class: 42.31 · Connections: 28.12 · Form: 42.31 · Reliability: 50.00
9#7Play Along20-150.77Ability: 50.00 · Class: 69.23 · Connections: 15.62 · Form: 42.31 · Reliability: 50.00
10#13Emma'S Justice15-147.50Ability: 43.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 65.62 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
11#6Gray Eminence10-146.50Ability: 41.25 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 90.62 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
12#8Nuccia15-145.03Ability: 38.54 · Class: 11.54 · Connections: 34.38 · Form: 73.08 · Reliability: 50.00
13#10Ultraviolet6-144.81Ability: 43.75 · Class: 34.62 · Connections: 78.12 · Form: 42.31 · Reliability: 50.00
14#4American Destiny20-140.16Ability: 36.46 · Class: 69.23 · Connections: 9.38 · Form: 7.69 · Reliability: 50.00
15#12Rosabella Gold30-139.33Ability: 34.38 · Class: 69.23 · Connections: 21.88 · Form: 7.69 · Reliability: 50.00
16#11Woodmere15-134.04Ability: 31.25 · Class: 11.54 · Connections: 3.12 · Form: 19.23 · Reliability: 50.00

Leading contenders: 9 · 1 · 16 · 3. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.

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Race 5 · 10 runners

Nora’s quick read

Raymond ranks first on this model’s 79.00 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.

Jump to exotic contenders ↓
RankProgramHorseMorning lineRatingComponent ratings
1#6Raymond12-179.00Ability: 85.00 · Class: 5.00 · Connections: 25.00 · Form: 75.00 · Reliability: 95.00
2#5Classic Time15-168.50Ability: 95.00 · Class: 55.00 · Connections: 85.00 · Form: 85.00 · Reliability: 35.00
3#7Market Street20-166.50Ability: 75.00 · Class: 80.00 · Connections: 35.00 · Form: 15.00 · Reliability: 75.00
4#1Camp Hale8-165.00Ability: 55.00 · Class: 35.00 · Connections: 15.00 · Form: 65.00 · Reliability: 85.00
5#2Jefferson Street4.5-155.75Ability: 65.00 · Class: 95.00 · Connections: 65.00 · Form: 30.00 · Reliability: 45.00
6#10Ship Ship Hooray8-142.50Ability: 45.00 · Class: 15.00 · Connections: 5.00 · Form: 95.00 · Reliability: 25.00
7#9Great White4-141.25Ability: 25.00 · Class: 45.00 · Connections: 45.00 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 55.00
8#8Rockies Balboa10-135.75Ability: 15.00 · Class: 25.00 · Connections: 95.00 · Form: 30.00 · Reliability: 65.00
9#3Creole Chrome3-134.75Ability: 35.00 · Class: 80.00 · Connections: 55.00 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 15.00
10#4Track Phantom6-111.00Ability: 5.00 · Class: 65.00 · Connections: 75.00 · Form: 5.00 · Reliability: 5.00

Leading contenders: 6 · 5 · 7 · 1. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.

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Race 6 · 16 runners

Nora’s quick read

Decimation ranks first on this model’s 71.25 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.

Jump to exotic contenders ↓
RankProgramHorseMorning lineRatingComponent ratings
1#3Decimation4-171.25Ability: 96.88 · Class: 75.00 · Connections: 9.38 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
2#10Accelerator12-156.50Ability: 66.25 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 15.62 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
3#13Midnight Max30-155.50Ability: 63.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 34.38 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
4#12Fair Chase10-154.50Ability: 61.25 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 71.88 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
5#9Prateen15-153.50Ability: 58.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 65.62 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
6#11Capitola3.5-152.50Ability: 56.25 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 96.88 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
7#5Start The Party8-151.50Ability: 53.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 90.62 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
8#16Twillo6-150.50Ability: 51.25 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 40.62 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
9#1Brazen Caine12-149.50Ability: 48.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 46.88 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
10#4Goshawk12-148.50Ability: 46.25 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 21.88 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
11#7Outlaw Joe5-146.50Ability: 41.25 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 59.38 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
12#14Just Plain Eugene10-145.50Ability: 38.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 28.12 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
13#2Midnight Rumble15-145.00Ability: 43.75 · Class: 25.00 · Connections: 53.12 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
14#6Dr. Bob8-144.50Ability: 36.25 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 78.12 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
15#15Epic Journey5-143.50Ability: 33.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 84.38 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
16#8Big City Steve30-142.50Ability: 31.25 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 3.12 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00

Leading contenders: 3 · 10 · 13 · 12. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.

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Race 7 · 12 runners

Nora’s quick read

Obliteration ranks first on this model’s 77.31 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.

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RankProgramHorseMorning lineRatingComponent ratings
1#11Obliteration4.5-177.31Ability: 79.17 · Class: 79.17 · Connections: 54.17 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 86.36
2#5American Man20-173.41Ability: 58.33 · Class: 54.17 · Connections: 45.83 · Form: 75.00 · Reliability: 95.45
3#4Roscoe'S Brother15-171.18Ability: 80.56 · Class: 70.83 · Connections: 79.17 · Form: 95.83 · Reliability: 50.00
4#3Chief Wallabee8-162.92Ability: 70.83 · Class: 95.83 · Connections: 20.83 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00
5#12Deep Flame1.4-160.25Ability: 87.50 · Class: 41.67 · Connections: 95.83 · Form: 87.50 · Reliability: 22.73
6#2Trouble Calling20-159.55Ability: 45.83 · Class: 29.17 · Connections: 62.50 · Form: 75.00 · Reliability: 77.27
7#7Mo Koko30-142.82Ability: 29.17 · Class: 41.67 · Connections: 12.50 · Form: 20.83 · Reliability: 68.18
8#1Solitude Dude6-142.48Ability: 58.33 · Class: 87.50 · Connections: 87.50 · Form: 37.50 · Reliability: 13.64
9#10Doublecents10-139.11Ability: 37.50 · Class: 4.17 · Connections: 37.50 · Form: 62.50 · Reliability: 40.91
10#6Dr. Kapur12-130.09Ability: 20.83 · Class: 62.50 · Connections: 70.83 · Form: 29.17 · Reliability: 31.82
11#8I C Light30-128.81Ability: 12.50 · Class: 12.50 · Connections: 29.17 · Form: 12.50 · Reliability: 59.09
12#9Street Beast20-15.97Ability: 4.17 · Class: 20.83 · Connections: 4.17 · Form: 4.17 · Reliability: 4.55

Leading contenders: 11 · 5 · 4 · 3. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.

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Race 8 · 10 runners

Nora’s quick read

Dare To Fly ranks first on this model’s 79.50 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.

Jump to exotic contenders ↓
RankProgramHorseMorning lineRatingComponent ratings
1#6Dare To Fly30-179.50Ability: 85.00 · Class: 85.00 · Connections: 5.00 · Form: 25.00 · Reliability: 95.00
2#3Hear The Queen3.5-162.50Ability: 55.00 · Class: 15.00 · Connections: 95.00 · Form: 85.00 · Reliability: 75.00
3#10Bojaca Blessing3.5-161.50Ability: 95.00 · Class: 35.00 · Connections: 55.00 · Form: 75.00 · Reliability: 25.00
4#9Buttons And Lace20-154.50Ability: 25.00 · Class: 5.00 · Connections: 25.00 · Form: 95.00 · Reliability: 85.00
5#1Caviar Breakfast8-153.75Ability: 65.00 · Class: 25.00 · Connections: 65.00 · Form: 40.00 · Reliability: 55.00
6#2Ontario6-147.75Ability: 75.00 · Class: 65.00 · Connections: 75.00 · Form: 40.00 · Reliability: 15.00
7#8She'S Lookin Lucky3-142.75Ability: 35.00 · Class: 75.00 · Connections: 35.00 · Form: 60.00 · Reliability: 35.00
8#4For Love And Honor10-135.25Ability: 15.00 · Class: 45.00 · Connections: 15.00 · Form: 60.00 · Reliability: 45.00
9#7Poppy The Princess30-132.50Ability: 5.00 · Class: 55.00 · Connections: 45.00 · Form: 15.00 · Reliability: 65.00
10#5Amber Cascade8-130.00Ability: 45.00 · Class: 95.00 · Connections: 85.00 · Form: 5.00 · Reliability: 5.00

Leading contenders: 6 · 3 · 10 · 9. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.

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Race 9 · 12 runners

Nora’s quick read

Mashallah ranks first on this model’s 68.69 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.

Jump to exotic contenders ↓
RankProgramHorseMorning lineRatingComponent ratings
1#9Mashallah1.6-168.69Ability: 95.83 · Class: 41.67 · Connections: 70.83 · Form: 79.17 · Reliability: 40.91
2#3Hen Party20-168.20Ability: 50.00 · Class: 54.17 · Connections: 62.50 · Form: 62.50 · Reliability: 95.45
3#7A Fine Chardonnay12-166.72Ability: 79.17 · Class: 87.50 · Connections: 12.50 · Form: 37.50 · Reliability: 59.09
4#11Movie Night4.5-156.91Ability: 87.50 · Class: 70.83 · Connections: 87.50 · Form: 45.83 · Reliability: 22.73
5#2Mythical12-154.79Ability: 62.50 · Class: 79.17 · Connections: 79.17 · Form: 29.17 · Reliability: 50.00
6#6Percy'S Bar6-154.07Ability: 50.00 · Class: 95.83 · Connections: 45.83 · Form: 4.17 · Reliability: 68.18
7#8Conceit4-152.48Ability: 70.83 · Class: 62.50 · Connections: 95.83 · Form: 87.50 · Reliability: 13.64
8#5Yo Fancy30-151.27Ability: 20.83 · Class: 20.83 · Connections: 4.17 · Form: 70.83 · Reliability: 86.36
9#10With A Kiss20-149.79Ability: 41.67 · Class: 12.50 · Connections: 54.17 · Form: 95.83 · Reliability: 50.00
10#12Star Actress30-144.75Ability: 29.17 · Class: 29.17 · Connections: 37.50 · Form: 20.83 · Reliability: 77.27
11#1Army'S Marauder30-124.68Ability: 12.50 · Class: 4.17 · Connections: 29.17 · Form: 54.17 · Reliability: 31.82
12#4Coco Connect50-19.30Ability: 4.17 · Class: 41.67 · Connections: 20.83 · Form: 12.50 · Reliability: 4.55

Leading contenders: 9 · 3 · 7 · 11. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.

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Race 10 · 16 runners

Nora’s quick read

Epic Lady Luck ranks first on this model’s 90.31 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.

Jump to exotic contenders ↓
RankProgramHorseMorning lineRatingComponent ratings
1#5Epic Lady Luck3.5-190.31Ability: 87.50 · Class: 84.38 · Connections: 84.38 · Form: 87.50 · Reliability: 96.43
2#1Mechaya6-180.94Ability: 96.88 · Class: 68.75 · Connections: 21.88 · Form: 43.75 · Reliability: 82.14
3#11Shirley Ann6-178.44Ability: 87.50 · Class: 40.62 · Connections: 53.12 · Form: 87.50 · Reliability: 75.00
4#3Twirling Claire4-168.75Ability: 71.88 · Class: 78.12 · Connections: 65.62 · Form: 56.25 · Reliability: 67.86
5#14She Wants War10-165.94Ability: 53.12 · Class: 68.75 · Connections: 96.88 · Form: 43.75 · Reliability: 89.29
6#15Balright15-157.14Ability: 60.42 · Class: 46.88 · Connections: 46.88 · Form: 71.88 · Reliability: 50.00
7#2Cactus Cairo30-156.72Ability: 78.12 · Class: 34.38 · Connections: 15.62 · Form: 71.88 · Reliability: 32.14
8#12Vekoma'S Diva12-156.09Ability: 40.62 · Class: 90.62 · Connections: 34.38 · Form: 96.88 · Reliability: 46.43
9#9Paris Twilight10-146.72Ability: 34.38 · Class: 9.38 · Connections: 71.88 · Form: 71.88 · Reliability: 60.71
10#16Lady Revenge12-146.72Ability: 59.38 · Class: 59.38 · Connections: 90.62 · Form: 21.88 · Reliability: 39.29
11#4Petronella10-132.19Ability: 46.88 · Class: 53.12 · Connections: 59.38 · Form: 12.50 · Reliability: 17.86
12#6Ms. Jay Dee Em5-132.14Ability: 22.92 · Class: 3.12 · Connections: 78.12 · Form: 34.38 · Reliability: 50.00
13#13Solemn Vow30-127.66Ability: 21.88 · Class: 96.88 · Connections: 9.38 · Form: 3.12 · Reliability: 25.00
14#7Zoe'S Prime30-126.25Ability: 28.12 · Class: 28.12 · Connections: 40.62 · Form: 56.25 · Reliability: 10.71
15#8Elite20-124.06Ability: 3.12 · Class: 21.88 · Connections: 28.12 · Form: 12.50 · Reliability: 53.57
16#10Windy Houston30-113.28Ability: 15.62 · Class: 15.62 · Connections: 3.12 · Form: 28.12 · Reliability: 3.57

Leading contenders: 5 · 1 · 11 · 3. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.

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Morning-line odds are estimates, not current prices. Rankings and model scores are experimental projections, not guarantees. Verify scratches, surface changes, official betting interests and post times.