The Connections Analyst · 2026-10-17
Marcus Cole at Laurel Park
Independent full-field rankings. The feature race rule is the largest field, with the earlier race breaking ties.
Feature raceRace 3 · Largest field
Best bet / strongest model signalRace 7 · #2 Year End Bonus
Best longshotRace 5 · #6 Lex'S Game
Race 1 · 9 runners
Marcus’s quick read
Dr. Brower ranks first on this model’s 78.89 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Rating | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #7 | Dr. Brower | 3-1 | 78.89 | Ability: 58.89 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 94.44 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 2 | #6 | Total Mischief | 8-1 | 76.56 | Ability: 50.00 · Class: 93.75 · Connections: 83.33 · Form: 43.75 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 3 | #5 | Notion In Motion | 3.5-1 | 65.94 | Ability: 83.33 · Class: 56.25 · Connections: 61.11 · Form: 56.25 · Reliability: 75.00 |
| 4 | #9 | Repurpose | 1.8-1 | 60.17 | Ability: 94.44 · Class: 43.75 · Connections: 50.00 · Form: 93.75 · Reliability: 58.33 |
| 5 | #8 | Teddy P | 30-1 | 52.19 | Ability: 16.67 · Class: 31.25 · Connections: 72.22 · Form: 18.75 · Reliability: 25.00 |
| 6 | #4 | Rebel Prince | 15-1 | 41.42 | Ability: 61.11 · Class: 18.75 · Connections: 38.89 · Form: 75.00 · Reliability: 91.67 |
| 7 | #3 | Mantua Man | 6-1 | 35.80 | Ability: 27.78 · Class: 81.25 · Connections: 27.78 · Form: 31.25 · Reliability: 8.33 |
| 8 | #2 | Patuxent | 15-1 | 30.03 | Ability: 38.89 · Class: 68.75 · Connections: 16.67 · Form: 75.00 · Reliability: 41.67 |
| 9 | #1 | Irish Divo | 30-1 | 9.36 | Ability: 20.37 · Class: 6.25 · Connections: 5.56 · Form: 6.25 · Reliability: 50.00 |
Leading contenders: 7 · 6 · 5 · 9. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 2 · 7 runners
Marcus’s quick read
Sometime ranks first on this model’s 86.43 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Rating | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #6 | Sometime | 1-1 | 86.43 | Ability: 92.86 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 92.86 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 35.71 |
| 2 | #7 | Fayes Heart | 3.5-1 | 70.36 | Ability: 71.43 · Class: 35.71 · Connections: 78.57 · Form: 92.86 · Reliability: 78.57 |
| 3 | #2 | Dancing Denae | 15-1 | 54.29 | Ability: 7.14 · Class: 92.86 · Connections: 64.29 · Form: 7.14 · Reliability: 21.43 |
| 4 | #1 | Hell Ofa Hillbilly | 2.5-1 | 52.14 | Ability: 50.00 · Class: 64.29 · Connections: 50.00 · Form: 78.57 · Reliability: 64.29 |
| 5 | #5 | Lil Sebastian | 8-1 | 51.07 | Ability: 71.43 · Class: 78.57 · Connections: 35.71 · Form: 64.29 · Reliability: 7.14 |
| 6 | #3 | Starship Magellan | 20-1 | 19.29 | Ability: 21.43 · Class: 7.14 · Connections: 21.43 · Form: 21.43 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 7 | #4 | Ellinger | 30-1 | 16.43 | Ability: 35.71 · Class: 21.43 · Connections: 7.14 · Form: 35.71 · Reliability: 92.86 |
Leading contenders: 6 · 7 · 2 · 1. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 3 · 12 runners
Marcus’s quick read
Oval Office ranks first on this model’s 81.25 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Rating | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #11 | Oval Office | 3.5-1 | 81.25 | Ability: 65.00 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 95.83 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 2 | #8 | Big Lar | 4.5-1 | 74.58 | Ability: 58.33 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 87.50 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 3 | #9 | Tiz A God | 6-1 | 73.37 | Ability: 47.22 · Class: 93.75 · Connections: 79.17 · Form: 31.25 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 4 | #7 | Victoria Master | 10-1 | 67.08 | Ability: 68.33 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 70.83 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 5 | #2 | Seismic Surge | 2.5-1 | 63.23 | Ability: 54.17 · Class: 81.25 · Connections: 62.50 · Form: 93.75 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 6 | #1 | The Wrath Of David | 2.5-1 | 51.67 | Ability: 79.17 · Class: 62.50 · Connections: 37.50 · Form: 81.25 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 7 | #10 | Adhiraj | 15-1 | 43.75 | Ability: 37.50 · Class: 12.50 · Connections: 54.17 · Form: 18.75 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 8 | #4 | Meshach | 3.5-1 | 39.48 | Ability: 29.17 · Class: 31.25 · Connections: 45.83 · Form: 68.75 · Reliability: 16.67 |
| 9 | #5 | Bishop Moon | 4-1 | 32.29 | Ability: 41.67 · Class: 62.50 · Connections: 20.83 · Form: 43.75 · Reliability: 83.33 |
| 10 | #6 | Love Aficionado | 8-1 | 31.70 | Ability: 30.56 · Class: 43.75 · Connections: 29.17 · Form: 56.25 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 11 | #12 | Bullistic | 15-1 | 27.92 | Ability: 51.67 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 12.50 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 12 | #3 | Nyquist Rhythm | 15-1 | 13.06 | Ability: 34.72 · Class: 12.50 · Connections: 4.17 · Form: 6.25 · Reliability: 50.00 |
Leading contenders: 11 · 8 · 9 · 7. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 4 · 8 runners
Marcus’s quick read
Share Success ranks first on this model’s 76.25 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Rating | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #6 | Share Success | 1.4-1 | 76.25 | Ability: 31.25 · Class: 81.25 · Connections: 93.75 · Form: 31.25 · Reliability: 43.75 |
| 2 | #7 | Iamdependingonyou | 6-1 | 67.50 | Ability: 93.75 · Class: 68.75 · Connections: 56.25 · Form: 18.75 · Reliability: 81.25 |
| 3 | #1 | Margaret P | 3.5-1 | 57.50 | Ability: 68.75 · Class: 93.75 · Connections: 43.75 · Form: 56.25 · Reliability: 56.25 |
| 4 | #5 | Stroll Trippin | 30-1 | 56.88 | Ability: 6.25 · Class: 43.75 · Connections: 81.25 · Form: 6.25 · Reliability: 31.25 |
| 5 | #4 | Maidstone | 6-1 | 54.38 | Ability: 18.75 · Class: 56.25 · Connections: 68.75 · Form: 43.75 · Reliability: 18.75 |
| 6 | #3 | Ready For Magic | 5-1 | 36.25 | Ability: 81.25 · Class: 31.25 · Connections: 18.75 · Form: 93.75 · Reliability: 68.75 |
| 7 | #8 | Valerie Street | 12-1 | 33.75 | Ability: 56.25 · Class: 6.25 · Connections: 31.25 · Form: 81.25 · Reliability: 93.75 |
| 8 | #2 | Christy My Love | 15-1 | 17.50 | Ability: 43.75 · Class: 18.75 · Connections: 6.25 · Form: 68.75 · Reliability: 6.25 |
Leading contenders: 6 · 7 · 1 · 5. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 5 · 11 runners
Marcus’s quick read
Lex'S Game ranks first on this model’s 62.73 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Rating | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #6 | Lex'S Game | 30-1 | 62.73 | Ability: 13.64 · Class: 13.64 · Connections: 95.45 · Form: 9.09 · Reliability: 95.45 |
| 2 | #11 | L Golden Boy | 20-1 | 62.50 | Ability: 31.82 · Class: 90.91 · Connections: 68.18 · Form: 9.09 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 3 | #9 | Hyteck Prince | 20-1 | 61.36 | Ability: 40.91 · Class: 31.82 · Connections: 77.27 · Form: 68.18 · Reliability: 13.64 |
| 4 | #7 | Vaya Jeffe | 10-1 | 60.91 | Ability: 22.73 · Class: 22.73 · Connections: 86.36 · Form: 77.27 · Reliability: 77.27 |
| 5 | #2 | Meritorious | 2-1 | 59.55 | Ability: 50.00 · Class: 77.27 · Connections: 59.09 · Form: 95.45 · Reliability: 31.82 |
| 6 | #4 | Contribution | 8-1 | 59.55 | Ability: 77.27 · Class: 68.18 · Connections: 50.00 · Form: 59.09 · Reliability: 86.36 |
| 7 | #10 | Patrol Squad Six | 2.5-1 | 56.59 | Ability: 95.45 · Class: 90.91 · Connections: 31.82 · Form: 36.36 · Reliability: 63.64 |
| 8 | #1 | Se Thar Barr | 5-1 | 38.64 | Ability: 86.36 · Class: 59.09 · Connections: 13.64 · Form: 86.36 · Reliability: 40.91 |
| 9 | #3 | Sun Above | 6-1 | 34.55 | Ability: 59.09 · Class: 40.91 · Connections: 22.73 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 22.73 |
| 10 | #5 | Pendar | 30-1 | 27.27 | Ability: 68.18 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 4.55 · Form: 22.73 · Reliability: 63.64 |
| 11 | #8 | D'Oro Cavallo | 30-1 | 26.36 | Ability: 4.55 · Class: 4.55 · Connections: 40.91 · Form: 36.36 · Reliability: 4.55 |
Leading contenders: 6 · 11 · 9 · 7. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 6 · 12 runners
Marcus’s quick read
Archimedes ranks first on this model’s 81.25 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Rating | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #12 | Archimedes | 5-1 | 81.25 | Ability: 62.50 · Class: 87.50 · Connections: 87.50 · Form: 20.83 · Reliability: 79.17 |
| 2 | #5 | Gimme Two Shots | 4-1 | 72.29 | Ability: 79.17 · Class: 33.33 · Connections: 79.17 · Form: 79.17 · Reliability: 62.50 |
| 3 | #8 | Skyrush | 6-1 | 68.12 | Ability: 37.50 · Class: 8.33 · Connections: 95.83 · Form: 45.83 · Reliability: 12.50 |
| 4 | #3 | Baltic | 4.5-1 | 65.62 | Ability: 87.50 · Class: 8.33 · Connections: 70.83 · Form: 87.50 · Reliability: 95.83 |
| 5 | #10 | One True Dude | 4.5-1 | 53.96 | Ability: 95.83 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 37.50 · Form: 95.83 · Reliability: 70.83 |
| 6 | #7 | Wheneveruremember | 2.5-1 | 49.58 | Ability: 70.83 · Class: 95.83 · Connections: 29.17 · Form: 4.17 · Reliability: 20.83 |
| 7 | #9 | Blue Suede Hooves | 12-1 | 48.96 | Ability: 45.83 · Class: 33.33 · Connections: 54.17 · Form: 37.50 · Reliability: 87.50 |
| 8 | #11 | Stone Cold Jones | 15-1 | 43.75 | Ability: 12.50 · Class: 20.83 · Connections: 62.50 · Form: 70.83 · Reliability: 4.17 |
| 9 | #6 | Twirling Express | 30-1 | 40.21 | Ability: 20.83 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 45.83 · Form: 12.50 · Reliability: 45.83 |
| 10 | #2 | Mister Woodford | 20-1 | 37.29 | Ability: 54.17 · Class: 75.00 · Connections: 20.83 · Form: 62.50 · Reliability: 54.17 |
| 11 | #4 | Borletti | 30-1 | 21.04 | Ability: 29.17 · Class: 75.00 · Connections: 4.17 · Form: 54.17 · Reliability: 37.50 |
| 12 | #1 | Fighting Words | 30-1 | 17.92 | Ability: 4.17 · Class: 62.50 · Connections: 12.50 · Form: 29.17 · Reliability: 29.17 |
Leading contenders: 12 · 5 · 8 · 3. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 7 · 7 runners
Marcus’s quick read
Year End Bonus ranks first on this model’s 79.29 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Rating | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #2 | Year End Bonus | 1.2-1 | 79.29 | Ability: 64.29 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 92.86 · Form: 78.57 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 2 | #1 | Mo Lake Time | 6-1 | 58.33 | Ability: 40.48 · Class: 7.14 · Connections: 78.57 · Form: 7.14 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 3 | #7 | Stone Cold Kelly | 12-1 | 57.86 | Ability: 21.43 · Class: 92.86 · Connections: 64.29 · Form: 35.71 · Reliability: 30.00 |
| 4 | #3 | Tejanita | 1.6-1 | 52.86 | Ability: 78.57 · Class: 78.57 · Connections: 35.71 · Form: 92.86 · Reliability: 10.00 |
| 5 | #4 | Peace Before Chaos | 20-1 | 41.43 | Ability: 7.14 · Class: 64.29 · Connections: 50.00 · Form: 35.71 · Reliability: 70.00 |
| 6 | #5 | Dutchman'S Map | 20-1 | 28.57 | Ability: 50.00 · Class: 21.43 · Connections: 21.43 · Form: 64.29 · Reliability: 90.00 |
| 7 | #6 | Spresso Mar | 8-1 | 25.71 | Ability: 64.29 · Class: 35.71 · Connections: 7.14 · Form: 35.71 · Reliability: 50.00 |
Leading contenders: 2 · 1 · 7 · 3. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 8 · 7 runners
Marcus’s quick read
Objection ranks first on this model’s 77.14 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Rating | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #5 | Objection | 3-1 | 77.14 | Ability: 64.29 · Class: 35.71 · Connections: 92.86 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 78.57 |
| 2 | #6 | Bruno | 2-1 | 59.29 | Ability: 78.57 · Class: 64.29 · Connections: 50.00 · Form: 92.86 · Reliability: 92.86 |
| 3 | #2 | Mugatu | 4.5-1 | 55.00 | Ability: 35.71 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 64.29 · Form: 35.71 · Reliability: 21.43 |
| 4 | #7 | Pea Ridge | 6-1 | 50.00 | Ability: 7.14 · Class: 7.14 · Connections: 78.57 · Form: 21.43 · Reliability: 7.14 |
| 5 | #4 | Spring Decision | 8-1 | 47.86 | Ability: 50.00 · Class: 92.86 · Connections: 35.71 · Form: 7.14 · Reliability: 35.71 |
| 6 | #3 | Forrest City | 3.5-1 | 39.29 | Ability: 92.86 · Class: 78.57 · Connections: 7.14 · Form: 71.43 · Reliability: 64.29 |
| 7 | #1 | Tell 'Em I'M Comin | 30-1 | 21.43 | Ability: 21.43 · Class: 21.43 · Connections: 21.43 · Form: 71.43 · Reliability: 50.00 |
Leading contenders: 5 · 6 · 2 · 7. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 9 · 8 runners
Marcus’s quick read
Horsing Around ranks first on this model’s 83.75 rating. Ratings are not win probabilities.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Rating | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #3 | Horsing Around | 1-1 | 83.75 | Ability: 68.75 · Class: 68.75 · Connections: 93.75 · Form: 81.25 · Reliability: 43.75 |
| 2 | #2 | Pretty Lavish | 5-1 | 70.62 | Ability: 31.25 · Class: 93.75 · Connections: 81.25 · Form: 31.25 · Reliability: 6.25 |
| 3 | #6 | Chilly Girl | 8-1 | 56.88 | Ability: 43.75 · Class: 31.25 · Connections: 68.75 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 31.25 |
| 4 | #4 | Roadrunner The Cat | 8-1 | 50.62 | Ability: 56.25 · Class: 18.75 · Connections: 56.25 · Form: 93.75 · Reliability: 81.25 |
| 5 | #7 | Ballycurrin | 4.5-1 | 47.50 | Ability: 81.25 · Class: 6.25 · Connections: 43.75 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 68.75 |
| 6 | #8 | Turkish Breeze | 6-1 | 42.19 | Ability: 93.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 18.75 · Form: 68.75 · Reliability: 93.75 |
| 7 | #1 | Bella'S Breeze | 30-1 | 32.50 | Ability: 6.25 · Class: 81.25 · Connections: 31.25 · Form: 6.25 · Reliability: 56.25 |
| 8 | #5 | Skittliedat | 30-1 | 15.94 | Ability: 18.75 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 6.25 · Form: 18.75 · Reliability: 18.75 |
Leading contenders: 3 · 2 · 6 · 4. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Morning-line odds are estimates, not current prices. Rankings and model scores are experimental projections, not guarantees. Verify scratches, surface changes, official betting interests and post times.