The Value Scout · 2026-10-17
Daniel Reed at Santa Anita
Independent full-field rankings. The feature race rule is the largest field, with the earlier race breaking ties.
Feature raceRace 5 · Largest field
Best bet / strongest model signalRace 2 · #5 No More Ding Dongs
Best longshotRace 5 · #7 Haunted House
Race 1 · 8 runners
Daniel’s quick read
Bourbon Story leads the value ranking at the morning line; compare the available price before considering a wager.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Model win chance | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #1 | Bourbon Story | 12-1 | 8.47% | Ability: 68.75 · Class: 92.86 · Connections: 31.25 · Form: 35.71 · Reliability: 91.67 |
| 2 | #7 | Brazoria | 1-1 | 52.61% | Ability: 93.75 · Class: 78.57 · Connections: 56.25 · Form: 92.86 · Reliability: 58.33 |
| 3 | #8 | Peachy Canyon | 2.5-1 | 27.11% | Ability: 81.25 · Class: 35.71 · Connections: 93.75 · Form: 78.57 · Reliability: 25.00 |
| 4 | #4 | Chair'S Coin | 5-1 | 9.63% | Ability: 56.25 · Class: 21.43 · Connections: 81.25 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 41.67 |
| 5 | #2 | Island Home | 20-1 | 1.65% | Ability: 43.75 · Class: 64.29 · Connections: 43.75 · Form: 64.29 · Reliability: 75.00 |
| 6 | #3 | Shane'S The Brains | 15-1 | 0.42% | Ability: 31.25 · Class: 7.14 · Connections: 68.75 · Form: 21.43 · Reliability: 8.33 |
| 7 | #5 | Lacey Love | 10-1 | 0.11% | Ability: 37.50 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 18.75 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 8 | #6 | I'Ll Be Your Baby | 30-1 | 0.00% | Ability: 35.42 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 6.25 · Form: 7.14 · Reliability: 50.00 |
Leading contenders: 1 · 7 · 8 · 4. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 2 · 5 runners
Daniel’s quick read
No More Ding Dongs leads the value ranking at the morning line; compare the available price before considering a wager.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Model win chance | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #5 | No More Ding Dongs | 15-1 | 26.32% | Ability: 70.00 · Class: 10.00 · Connections: 30.00 · Form: 70.00 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 2 | #3 | Special Club | 1.8-1 | 24.04% | Ability: 50.00 · Class: 60.00 · Connections: 70.00 · Form: 40.00 · Reliability: 10.00 |
| 3 | #4 | Gettinby | 1-1 | 31.27% | Ability: 90.00 · Class: 30.00 · Connections: 50.00 · Form: 90.00 · Reliability: 90.00 |
| 4 | #1 | Otto The Conqueror | 5-1 | 9.22% | Ability: 30.00 · Class: 60.00 · Connections: 10.00 · Form: 10.00 · Reliability: 70.00 |
| 5 | #2 | Jerry'S Spirit | 4.5-1 | 9.14% | Ability: 10.00 · Class: 90.00 · Connections: 90.00 · Form: 40.00 · Reliability: 30.00 |
Leading contenders: 5 · 3 · 4 · 1. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 3 · 5 runners
Daniel’s quick read
Twirling Point leads the value ranking at the morning line; compare the available price before considering a wager.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Model win chance | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #4 | Twirling Point | 4.5-1 | 25.39% | Ability: 90.00 · Class: 90.00 · Connections: 10.00 · Form: 40.00 · Reliability: 70.00 |
| 2 | #5 | Endlessly | 4-1 | 21.00% | Ability: 70.00 · Class: 70.00 · Connections: 70.00 · Form: 10.00 · Reliability: 30.00 |
| 3 | #1 | Nesso'S Lastharrah | 3-1 | 23.91% | Ability: 40.00 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 50.00 · Form: 70.00 · Reliability: 10.00 |
| 4 | #3 | Astronomer | 3-1 | 17.46% | Ability: 40.00 · Class: 30.00 · Connections: 30.00 · Form: 40.00 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 5 | #2 | Artislas | 1.6-1 | 12.25% | Ability: 10.00 · Class: 10.00 · Connections: 90.00 · Form: 90.00 · Reliability: 90.00 |
Leading contenders: 4 · 5 · 1 · 3. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 4 · 7 runners
Daniel’s quick read
Bear'S Board leads the value ranking at the morning line; compare the available price before considering a wager.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Model win chance | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #6 | Bear'S Board | 10-1 | 13.42% | Ability: 35.71 · Class: 42.86 · Connections: 78.57 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 35.71 |
| 2 | #2 | Lovely Medaglia | 8-1 | 16.38% | Ability: 92.86 · Class: 85.71 · Connections: 7.14 · Form: 64.29 · Reliability: 92.86 |
| 3 | #7 | Springline | 2.5-1 | 25.67% | Ability: 78.57 · Class: 7.14 · Connections: 50.00 · Form: 85.71 · Reliability: 21.43 |
| 4 | #1 | Photogenic | 2-1 | 21.81% | Ability: 21.43 · Class: 42.86 · Connections: 21.43 · Form: 21.43 · Reliability: 7.14 |
| 5 | #4 | Sei Bella | 4-1 | 10.33% | Ability: 50.00 · Class: 85.71 · Connections: 64.29 · Form: 7.14 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 6 | #3 | Can'T Say That | 3.5-1 | 8.93% | Ability: 64.29 · Class: 21.43 · Connections: 92.86 · Form: 85.71 · Reliability: 78.57 |
| 7 | #5 | Bitter Truth | 30-1 | 3.46% | Ability: 7.14 · Class: 64.29 · Connections: 35.71 · Form: 35.71 · Reliability: 64.29 |
Leading contenders: 6 · 2 · 7 · 1. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 5 · 11 runners
Daniel’s quick read
Haunted House leads the value ranking at the morning line; compare the available price before considering a wager.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Model win chance | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #7 | Haunted House | 8-1 | 30.63% | Ability: 77.27 · Class: 72.73 · Connections: 31.82 · Form: 40.91 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 2 | #4 | Bottled In Bond | 3.5-1 | 30.56% | Ability: 77.27 · Class: 40.91 · Connections: 95.45 · Form: 22.73 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 3 | #3 | Enjoy The Ride | 10-1 | 8.29% | Ability: 43.94 · Class: 27.27 · Connections: 50.00 · Form: 59.09 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 4 | #9 | Red Raider | 8-1 | 8.60% | Ability: 62.12 · Class: 4.55 · Connections: 77.27 · Form: 86.36 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 5 | #10 | Is That You Wing | 4-1 | 9.28% | Ability: 77.27 · Class: 95.45 · Connections: 40.91 · Form: 72.73 · Reliability: 90.00 |
| 6 | #11 | Repo | 4.5-1 | 5.21% | Ability: 50.00 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 68.18 · Form: 95.45 · Reliability: 30.00 |
| 7 | #2 | Olympian Thirst | 30-1 | 3.22% | Ability: 13.64 · Class: 59.09 · Connections: 22.73 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 10.00 |
| 8 | #6 | Lil Prince Cairo | 10-1 | 1.83% | Ability: 53.03 · Class: 27.27 · Connections: 86.36 · Form: 4.55 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 9 | #1 | Rapid Thirsty | 30-1 | 0.50% | Ability: 40.91 · Class: 72.73 · Connections: 4.55 · Form: 13.64 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 10 | #5 | Missed Fortune | 5-1 | 1.89% | Ability: 31.82 · Class: 86.36 · Connections: 59.09 · Form: 72.73 · Reliability: 70.00 |
| 11 | #8 | City Of Forza | 30-1 | 0.01% | Ability: 4.55 · Class: 13.64 · Connections: 13.64 · Form: 31.82 · Reliability: 50.00 |
Leading contenders: 7 · 4 · 3 · 9. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 6 · 7 runners
Daniel’s quick read
Obhayve leads the value ranking at the morning line; compare the available price before considering a wager.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Model win chance | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #3 | Obhayve | 30-1 | 7.98% | Ability: 21.43 · Class: 64.29 · Connections: 78.57 · Form: 14.29 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 2 | #7 | Breakaway Babe | 8-1 | 26.19% | Ability: 64.29 · Class: 78.57 · Connections: 7.14 · Form: 64.29 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 3 | #1 | East Witton | 5-1 | 14.14% | Ability: 59.52 · Class: 7.14 · Connections: 35.71 · Form: 85.71 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 4 | #5 | Imnosurething | 3-1 | 18.85% | Ability: 50.00 · Class: 21.43 · Connections: 21.43 · Form: 14.29 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 5 | #4 | Blame Ashley | 1-1 | 31.42% | Ability: 64.29 · Class: 92.86 · Connections: 92.86 · Form: 85.71 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 6 | #2 | I Know Nothing | 10-1 | 0.64% | Ability: 35.71 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 50.00 · Form: 42.86 · Reliability: 83.33 |
| 7 | #6 | Danielle | 8-1 | 0.78% | Ability: 21.43 · Class: 35.71 · Connections: 64.29 · Form: 42.86 · Reliability: 16.67 |
Leading contenders: 3 · 7 · 1 · 5. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 7 · 9 runners
Daniel’s quick read
Trump Era leads the value ranking at the morning line; compare the available price before considering a wager.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Model win chance | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #7 | Trump Era | 3.5-1 | 34.39% | Ability: 83.33 · Class: 72.22 · Connections: 27.78 · Form: 61.11 · Reliability: 5.56 |
| 2 | #4 | Moon Ice | 5-1 | 17.77% | Ability: 94.44 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 38.89 · Form: 83.33 · Reliability: 72.22 |
| 3 | #2 | Non Domicile | 15-1 | 6.20% | Ability: 16.67 · Class: 5.56 · Connections: 5.56 · Form: 94.44 · Reliability: 27.78 |
| 4 | #6 | Knowhere | 12-1 | 6.04% | Ability: 50.00 · Class: 16.67 · Connections: 16.67 · Form: 27.78 · Reliability: 61.11 |
| 5 | #3 | Moonlit Sonata | 5-1 | 12.67% | Ability: 72.22 · Class: 94.44 · Connections: 94.44 · Form: 5.56 · Reliability: 94.44 |
| 6 | #1 | Flamboyant | 8-1 | 8.22% | Ability: 61.11 · Class: 83.33 · Connections: 72.22 · Form: 16.67 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 7 | #5 | Back Nine Stakes | 6-1 | 5.71% | Ability: 27.78 · Class: 38.89 · Connections: 83.33 · Form: 38.89 · Reliability: 16.67 |
| 8 | #9 | Timayyyy | 3-1 | 8.55% | Ability: 38.89 · Class: 61.11 · Connections: 50.00 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 38.89 |
| 9 | #8 | After Dawn | 15-1 | 0.45% | Ability: 5.56 · Class: 27.78 · Connections: 61.11 · Form: 72.22 · Reliability: 83.33 |
Leading contenders: 7 · 4 · 2 · 6. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 8 · 9 runners
Daniel’s quick read
She Spendsalot leads the value ranking at the morning line; compare the available price before considering a wager.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Model win chance | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #5 | She Spendsalot | 15-1 | 9.70% | Ability: 38.89 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 5.56 · Form: 50.00 · Reliability: 21.43 |
| 2 | #4 | Stylishly Big | 20-1 | 5.55% | Ability: 57.41 · Class: 16.67 · Connections: 61.11 · Form: 61.11 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 3 | #8 | Blame The Track | 1.2-1 | 43.93% | Ability: 94.44 · Class: 94.44 · Connections: 38.89 · Form: 72.22 · Reliability: 78.57 |
| 4 | #3 | Godbless Her | 3.5-1 | 17.08% | Ability: 64.81 · Class: 83.33 · Connections: 83.33 · Form: 27.78 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 5 | #9 | Dancing Thru Fire | 3-1 | 14.92% | Ability: 83.33 · Class: 72.22 · Connections: 94.44 · Form: 94.44 · Reliability: 64.29 |
| 6 | #6 | Strong Proof | 30-1 | 4.90% | Ability: 27.78 · Class: 5.56 · Connections: 16.67 · Form: 16.67 · Reliability: 7.14 |
| 7 | #1 | Melba Montgomery | 6-1 | 3.82% | Ability: 50.00 · Class: 38.89 · Connections: 72.22 · Form: 83.33 · Reliability: 92.86 |
| 8 | #2 | Long Legged Babs | 30-1 | 0.07% | Ability: 16.67 · Class: 61.11 · Connections: 27.78 · Form: 5.56 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 9 | #7 | Palace Mischief | 30-1 | 0.03% | Ability: 5.56 · Class: 27.78 · Connections: 50.00 · Form: 38.89 · Reliability: 35.71 |
Leading contenders: 5 · 4 · 8 · 3. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Race 9 · 11 runners
Daniel’s quick read
Mary'S Boy Bolt leads the value ranking at the morning line; compare the available price before considering a wager.
Jump to exotic contenders ↓| Rank | Program | Horse | Morning line | Model win chance | Component ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #7 | Mary'S Boy Bolt | 8-1 | 15.54% | Ability: 13.64 · Class: 77.27 · Connections: 22.73 · Form: 72.73 · Reliability: 4.55 |
| 2 | #10 | Lahaina Flavor | 10-1 | 8.62% | Ability: 40.91 · Class: 50.00 · Connections: 13.64 · Form: 36.36 · Reliability: 50.00 |
| 3 | #3 | Zalamo | 4.5-1 | 16.27% | Ability: 77.27 · Class: 40.91 · Connections: 68.18 · Form: 95.45 · Reliability: 22.73 |
| 4 | #8 | Dhitjari | 15-1 | 5.03% | Ability: 63.64 · Class: 95.45 · Connections: 40.91 · Form: 22.73 · Reliability: 95.45 |
| 5 | #4 | City Exile | 4-1 | 14.92% | Ability: 95.45 · Class: 59.09 · Connections: 50.00 · Form: 86.36 · Reliability: 86.36 |
| 6 | #11 | Mubtadaa | 5-1 | 11.58% | Ability: 86.36 · Class: 68.18 · Connections: 86.36 · Form: 72.73 · Reliability: 77.27 |
| 7 | #5 | Sarwar | 6-1 | 9.76% | Ability: 63.64 · Class: 86.36 · Connections: 59.09 · Form: 13.64 · Reliability: 40.91 |
| 8 | #2 | Calm Sea | 8-1 | 5.80% | Ability: 50.00 · Class: 22.73 · Connections: 31.82 · Form: 54.55 · Reliability: 68.18 |
| 9 | #6 | Malibu Coast | 8-1 | 5.68% | Ability: 31.82 · Class: 13.64 · Connections: 95.45 · Form: 36.36 · Reliability: 31.82 |
| 10 | #9 | One Of These Days | 30-1 | 2.77% | Ability: 22.73 · Class: 31.82 · Connections: 4.55 · Form: 4.55 · Reliability: 59.09 |
| 11 | #1 | Double Neat | 15-1 | 4.04% | Ability: 4.55 · Class: 4.55 · Connections: 77.27 · Form: 54.55 · Reliability: 13.64 |
Leading contenders: 7 · 10 · 3 · 8. Confirm official betting interests and current pool minimums.
Back to card summary ↑Morning-line odds are estimates, not current prices. Rankings and model scores are experimental projections, not guarantees. Verify scratches, surface changes, official betting interests and post times.